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Reputable, provable, FACTUAL statistics...

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I'd like to start a thread about pro- gun statistics. Not statistics from weekly world news...but CREDIBLE , RELIABLE , FACTUAL sources. Stats that can be copied, and pasted when needed to drive home the reality that anti gun rhetoric just doesn't work... Anyone got any?? Let's see em!!!!

Tables, and graphs , etc... Those would be welcome, as well!

And please quote your sources! As well as data DATES...

Data from 1939 isn't really gonna help...unless it's all the way through now... You know what I mean

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A good "comparison" statistic, if not actually "pro-gun."

 

"Every day, almost 29 people in the United States die in alcohol-impaired vehicle crashes—that's one person every 50 minutes in 2016. Drunk-driving fatalities have fallen by a third in the last three decades; however, drunk-driving crashes claim more than 10,000 lives per year. In 2010, the most recent year for which cost data is available, these deaths and damages contributed to a cost of $44B per year."

 

https://www.nhtsa.gov/risky-driving/drunk-driving

 

And yet... they haven't banned cars.  :unsure:

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I don't know if this is the type of info that you are looking for, but I thought this posting from someone named MoMan over on the 1911.com forum was kind of interesting:

 

This is what I gripe about when talking about school shooting sprees.  All the psych drugs these shooters are suppisedly on. :angry:

 

 

 

I've said it before, and will continue to say it. The cause is parents who are letting their kids be "babysat" by drugs. These parents are running to the Dr. every time they can't control their kids. The Drs. are quick to put the kids on meds, and then the parents job is easier (yea, riiiight!!). Parenting takes time, hard work, and a commitment to raising healthy, productive members of society. This is a societal problem.

Just take a look at this evidence (SOURCE: https://www.naturalnews.com/039752_m...pressants.html ):
• Eric Harris age 17 (first on Zoloft then Luvox) and Dylan Klebold aged 18 (Columbine school shooting in Littleton, Colorado), killed 12 students and 1 teacher, and wounded 23 others, before killing themselves. Klebold's medical records have never been made available to the public.

• Jeff Weise, age 16, had been prescribed 60 mg/day of Prozac (three times the average starting dose for adults!) when he shot his grandfather, his grandfather's girlfriend and many fellow students at Red Lake, Minnesota. He then shot himself. 10 dead, 12 wounded.

• Cory Baadsgaard, age 16, Wahluke (Washington state) High School, was on Paxil (which caused him to have hallucinations) when he took a rifle to his high school and held 23 classmates hostage. He has no memory of the event.

• Chris Fetters, age 13, killed his favorite aunt while taking Prozac.

• Christopher Pittman, age 12, murdered both his grandparents while taking Zoloft.

• Mathew Miller, age 13, hung himself in his bedroom closet after taking Zoloft for 6 days.

• Kip Kinkel, age 15, (on Prozac and Ritalin) shot his parents while they slept then went to school and opened fire killing 2 classmates and injuring 22 shortly after beginning Prozac treatment.

• Luke Woodham, age 16 (Prozac) killed his mother and then killed two students, wounding six others.

• A boy in Pocatello, ID (Zoloft) in 1998 had a Zoloft-induced seizure that caused an armed stand off at his school.

• Michael Carneal (Ritalin), age 14, opened fire on students at a high school prayer meeting in West Paducah, Kentucky. Three teenagers were killed, five others were wounded..

• A young man in Huntsville, Alabama (Ritalin) went psychotic chopping up his parents with an ax and also killing one sibling and almost murdering another.

• Andrew Golden, age 11, (Ritalin) and Mitchell Johnson, aged 14, (Ritalin) shot 15 people, killing four students, one teacher, and wounding 10 others.

• TJ Solomon, age 15, (Ritalin) high school student in Conyers, Georgia opened fire on and wounded six of his class mates.

• Rod Mathews, age 14, (Ritalin) beat a classmate to death with a bat.

• James Wilson, age 19, (various psychiatric drugs) from Breenwood, South Carolina, took a .22 caliber revolver into an elementary school killing two young girls, and wounding seven other children and two teachers.

• Elizabeth Bush, age 13, (Paxil) was responsible for a school shooting in Pennsylvania

• Jason Hoffman (Effexor and Celexa) – school shooting in El Cajon, California

• Jarred Viktor, age 15, (Paxil), after five days on Paxil he stabbed his grandmother 61 times.

• Chris Shanahan, age 15 (Paxil) in Rigby, ID who out of the blue killed a woman.

• Jeff Franklin (Prozac and Ritalin), Huntsville, AL, killed his parents as they came home from work using a sledge hammer, hatchet, butcher knife and mechanic's file, then attacked his younger brothers and sister.

• Neal Furrow (Prozac) in LA Jewish school shooting reported to have been court-ordered to be on Prozac along with several other medications.

• Kevin Rider, age 14, was withdrawing from Prozac when he died from a gunshot wound to his head. Initially it was ruled a suicide, but two years later, the investigation into his death was opened as a possible homicide. The prime suspect, also age 14, had been taking Zoloft and other SSRI antidepressants.

• Alex Kim, age 13, hung himself shortly after his Lexapro prescription had been doubled.

• Diane Routhier was prescribed Welbutrin for gallstone problems. Six days later, after suffering many adverse effects of the drug, she shot herself.

• Billy Willkomm, an accomplished wrestler and a University of Florida student, was prescribed Prozac at the age of 17. His family found him dead of suicide – hanging from a tall ladder at the family's Gulf Shore Boulevard home in July 2002.

• Kara Jaye Anne Fuller-Otter, age 12, was on Paxil when she hung herself from a hook in her closet. Kara's parents said ".... the damn doctor wouldn't take her off it and I asked him to when we went in on the second visit. I told him I thought she was having some sort of reaction to Paxil...")

• Gareth Christian, Vancouver, age 18, was on Paxil when he committed suicide in 2002, (Gareth's father could not accept his son's death and killed himself.)

• Julie Woodward, age 17, was on Zoloft when she hung herself in her family's detached garage.

• Matthew Miller was 13 when he saw a psychiatrist because he was having difficulty at school. The psychiatrist gave him samples of Zoloft. Seven days later his mother found him dead, hanging by a belt from a laundry hook in his closet.

• Kurt Danysh, age 18, and on Prozac, killed his father with a shotgun. He is now behind prison bars, and writes letters, trying to warn the world that SSRI drugs can kill.

• Woody __, age 37, committed suicide while in his 5th week of taking Zoloft. Shortly before his death his physician suggested doubling the dose of the drug. He had seen his physician only for insomnia. He had never been depressed, nor did he have any history of any mental illness symptoms.

• A boy from Houston, age 10, shot and killed his father after his Prozac dosage was increased.

• Hammad Memon, age 15, shot and killed a fellow middle school student. He had been diagnosed with ADHD and depression and was taking Zoloft and "other drugs for the conditions."

• Matti Saari, a 22-year-old culinary student, shot and killed 9 students and a teacher, and wounded another student, before killing himself. Saari was taking an SSRI and a benzodiazapine.

• Steven Kazmierczak, age 27, shot and killed five people and wounded 21 others before killing himself in a Northern Illinois University auditorium. According to his girlfriend, he had recently been taking Prozac, Xanax and Ambien. Toxicology results showed that he still had trace amounts of Xanax in his system.

• Finnish gunman Pekka-Eric Auvinen, age 18, had been taking antidepressants before he killed eight people and wounded a dozen more at Jokela High School – then he committed suicide.

• Asa Coon from Cleveland, age 14, shot and wounded four before taking his own life. Court records show Coon was on Trazodone.

• Jon Romano, age 16, on medication for depression, fired a shotgun at a teacher in his New York high school.

Missing from list... 3 of 4 known to have taken these same meds....

• What drugs was Jared Lee Loughner on, age 21...... killed 6 people and injuring 14 others in Tuscon, Az?

• What drugs was James Eagan Holmes on, age 24..... killed 12 people and injuring 59 others in Aurora Colorado?

• What drugs was Jacob Tyler Roberts on, age 22, killed 2 injured 1, Clackamas Or?

• What drugs was Adam Peter Lanza on, age 20, Killed 26 and wounded 2 in Newtown Ct?

Those focusing on further firearms bans or magazine restrictions are clearly focusing on the wrong issue and asking the wrong questions, either as a deliberate attempt to hide these links, or out of complete and utter ignorance.
__________________

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I always enjoyed a show called "Seconds from Disaster".  The jist is that in almost every case, it was a series of events, not one single item that lead to the particular event being investigated. I wish there was a show that used the same approach to shooting sprees/mass casualty events. The first thing anti gunners want to do is ban, I'm thinking most of these events, just like plane crashes are caused by a series of failures in the system that need to come to light. Unfortunately, I doubt there's anyone out there with the integrity to take an un-bias look at the facts that leads to the mass casualty events that the media feeds on.

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^ That would be a great series for Netflix!  032.gif

 

I could also see the History Channel doing something like this too.

Edited by Ronin38

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I think the most persuasive single piece is this one:

https://larrycorreia.wordpress.com/2012/12/20/an-opinion-on-gun-control/

 

The links in it used to be solid, but I haven't checked them lately. What I particularly like is that this article isn't written to choir preach, it is written to persuade.

The facts are largely drawn from data cherry picked to favor the other side, but even then still strongly support his case.

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I have a degree in law and justice, and a major portion of the coursework was interpreting crime data, and crime theory. I later worked in a job that had me compiling and correcting data which goes into the FBI database which is the primary source of data on which the UCR is based.

 

The fundamental things are:

1) There is no way to track how many crimes are prevented by use of firearms. You just can't count things which don't happen, but might have. That's just reality.

2) The current governmental systems only look for negative uses of firearms. The data comes primarily from cops, charging documents, and from adjudications. There's a checkbox on the police narrative and citation forms for "[ ] firearm involved", which is interpreted as an intensifier. i.e. it gets tracked as though the criminal had a gun and used it to further the crime. However, since there is no checkbox such as "[ ] person other than suspect had firearm, [ ] firearm influenced outcome of event, [ ] aggression averted due to DGU...." that doesn't get tracked. What does happen is that if the cop making the initial contact is filling out his reports and there is a gun in any of those roles, which he bothers to report, he will check that box, and it will get tracked as though the criminal had a gun and used it in furtherance of the crime." Having talked to some LEO about this when I was doing the job, some would tick the box if the gun was connected to the criminal in any way. i.e. there was a stray gun in the room where he was arrested (which counts as "control" for felon in possession type charges), but they may or may not if some third party had a gun. i.e. victim tells cop that they warned off an aggressor with their gun, or victim  or witness merely had a gun but did not actively use it or display it during the incident. Most of them kinda made it sound like it was a coin flip whether they would tick the box, because they weren't sure whether they should or not.

 

That's how reliable crime data is.

 

4) Most of the studies on criminal uses of firearms are part of congressional efforts to create data upon which they may build conclusions. Specifically, the conclusion of fact finding that there is a "widespread and pervasive" problem. That's one of the triggering factors which is neccessary for federal field preemption where federal authority is concurrent with state. Most of these studies are rather blatantly rigged so that they can only compile negative evidence. About 8 or so years ago, there was a bunch of stink on the news because one of the most egregious 'studies' was defunded by the repubs. Not all the studies. Just one which didn't even come close to academic rigor, and was clearly biased in the basic structure.

 

5) I am not aware of any current studies which even attempt to track DGUs, or which track things like what caliber was involved, or the capacity of firearms. Most that track things like shots fired, are selective surveys of incidents of homicide. I don't believe there are similar studies attempting to try and track or compare what happens when force is threatened or non-lethal exchanges of gun fire happens. Fundamentally, even if there were funding, I wouldn't know even how to start making a coherent study like that happen retroactively. We would have to pay and train cop shops in a large area to track the relevant info, then come back in a few years and see what happened.

 

6) While there is no such thing as an apples to apples sociological comparison for anything, you can compare homicide rates in populations which are about as comparable as you can get with guns, to those without. Some places are a little higher, some lower. It's really close. What you do find rather strikingly is that serious assault is a lot lower in places where there is widespread access to guns. Also that the demographics of the victims change. Basically women and other soft target groups are assaulted and injured a lot less where guns are present. (citation needed.)

 

-- Basically knowing 'how the sausage is made' concerning crime statistics makes it so that while I have read a great deal more relevant statistics on the issue, I don't know of any single bit of data which doesn't have some fundamental flaws in how it was gathered which would tend to invalidate it for decision making. In many cases the flaws strongly favor an anti-gun perspective, so the fact that most of them more or less tie can be used as a persuasive pro gun argument. Persuasive, but not truly conclusive.

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I forgot #7) which is a biggie:

 

7) People who do use firearms defensively, legally or otherwise have every incentive not to report this, so it is probably reported at lower rates than even sexual assaults. Moreover, most people in violent encounters don't do everything completely kosher. When you warn off your mugger, perhaps your CPL wasn't in your pocket. Maybe you shouted "and if I ever see you again I'll put you in the ground..." Not exactly what you really want to tell a cop. Understandable, but mostly people are just relieved and want the whole scene to be forgotten.

 

Imagine you are the researcher. Knock on doors census taker style. "Excuse me sir or madam. I am from the government [or your local liberal university] I am doing a study about guns and I want to ask you if you've ever pointed a gun at someone. Do you have a few moments to answer some questions? Sir! No need to be rude, you could have just said "no."" How many times have firearms owners that you know joked about "boating accidents" re currently legal firearms? Gun owners don't like to talk to researchers and the government. Even when it might actually help us. We're stubborn, and we're distrustful, and we've had a lot of good reasons to get that way. 

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"Have you ever pointed a gun at someone?"

 

"Well, not yet...You should leave now..." wink.png

"Does active duty in a war zone qualify?"

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I didn't report the only time I've pulled my EDC in self defense.

I was told by the vast majority of my online and RL peers that I should've.

 

The FBI's own statistics show a very telling story about violent crime and gun use, and it doesn't serve the Leftist agenda.

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There was a time when I used to run  night service calls for the elevators in D.C. public housing. Thank GOD for my .25 Beretta! Never had to POINT it at anyone. But just displaying it in my hand DID make me feel like Moses parting the Red Sea, when the crowd on the stoop would move away from blocking the door!

 One DOES NOT 'report' things like that when one would go to jail for defending ones self.

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Now keep in mind this article was written before Obama had the FBI change the definition of mass shooting from 4 to 3.

http://news.northeastern.edu/2018/02/schools-are-still-one-of-the-safest-places-for-children-researcher-says/

 

Now in this FBI analysis of mass shootings, they actually admit that the change in definition added the 40% increase to the stats.

 

 

https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/active-shooter-study-2000-2013-1.pdf/view

Edited by poolingmyignorance

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Yep. That happens too.

 

Often an increase in crime is attributable to something as simple as a department hiring a clerk to start tracking it, or to a department deciding to train the officers to record it, and printing new forms. By the same token, a decrease in a particular crime can be not having enough staff to track it, or a departmental policy not to cite for a particular crime.

 

So if we decide that we aren't enforcing immigration issues in  your city, they aren't getting tracked either.

 

Then there's the whole sliding scale of officer discretion relativism, and then the matching event at the prosecution level.

 

i.e. If you are arresting a person for vandalizing a mailbox (Malicious Mischief), you would count it. But if you were arresting someone for a serious assault and battery, and they kicked a dent into the mailbox while you were dragging them to the back of the squad car, you might not even bother to state malicious mischief on the incident report. Especially, since the guy has a probation violation, a restraining order, 4 FTAs on DUI charges, and is in possession of a controlled substance. Whether a crime is tracked is in a practical way graded on a curve, not against all crimes, but of the crimes of the incident. I'm in favor of recording and charging ALL of them as a matter of policy, but I know that is not the common practice. Quite the reverse. If you are the cop, or the prosecutor/DA whaterver, why bother with the little stuff? You know it's going to get dropped in the plea bargain. Besides most of the sentencing will run concurrently, so it doesn't make any difference. -- Unless you care about accurate data, or someone's criminal record actually reflecting all of the stuff they got caught doing, which I do. But it feels like I am the only one. 

Edited by GunFun
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Data is no better than polls , as they are based on the questions and how they are asked.

Many times national data does not come close to local data.

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National data is compiled from local data, but there are often definitional issues to resolve.

 

In blatant terms for example, I would expect Nevada's tracking of criminal prostitution would be a tracked as unlicensed prostitution, or perhaps a health code violation for not properly certifying the cleanliness of the bordello. Nevada data would screw up the national data

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I see people saying gun related crime has gone up in recent years from 11/100k to 12/100k, any info disproving  or at least explaining that factoid?

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I see people saying gun related crime has gone up in recent years from 11/100k to 12/100k, any info disproving  or at least explaining that factoid?

 

"gun related crime" is way to broad a phrase to be able to prove or debunk. "crimes of violence in which a gun was used by force or threat" is closer to something you can put a real statistic on. Or crimes where a gun was present. Or shootings. Those are all tracked. Gun related crime? How related? What if new stuff is now a crime, such as having a gun, or failing to timely report a glitch in form 4476- (a criminal question a gunsmith in my area was asking me about. He didn't want to commit the new crime of not ratting out a guy for flunking a background check that he should have passed/ which is redundant, since the event still automatically generates a report to LEO even if he does nothing)

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I see people saying gun related crime has gone up in recent years from 11/100k to 12/100k, any info disproving or at least explaining that factoid?

Only a slight uptick from 2015-2017

35 year a 42% decline in murder and all violent crime.

 

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/tables/1tabledatadecoverviewpdf/table_1_crime_in_the_united_states_by_volume_and_rate_per_100000_inhabitants_1994-2013.xls

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I especially DESPISE it when they quote an alarming increase in _____ over _____ years, but the increase is less than the population increase, which wolud prove that there is ACTUALLY a significant DECREASE!

 

Lies,

damned lies 

and statistics!

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The standard way of calculating crime rates are ___________ incidents /1000 residents per year. 

 

It always breaks down to the definition of the crime, and whether you fill the blank with "assumed", "Reported by victim", Cited by officer, charged at booking, convicted.

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I used to live in Easton MD at one time. They advertised themselves as the 'best City to live in". Especially proud of their LOW crime rate. In less than a year we had 3 bicycles stolen and my car broken into. NONE of the Police reports I filed we EVER ENTERED into their OFFICIAL data base. They cut off reporting crimes to create their "low crime" statistic. 

"Official" reports are not always factual the "Officials" are Politicians, and cannot be trusted, they often spin gold from a pile of shit.

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The standard way of calculating crime rates are ___________ incidents /1000 residents per year. 

 

It always breaks down to the definition of the crime, and whether you fill the blank with "assumed", "Reported by victim", Cited by officer, charged at booking, convicted.

^^^ That's how Chicago comes off looking better than smaller cities. Below is a great break down that I always enjoy...

 

https://heyjackass.com/

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