This is a very interesting analysis / essay of the current global political, economic, military and cultural trends and what they mean. It's a bit long, but full of some very "eye-opening" stuff. - Macbeau sends...


WHAT IN THE WORLD IS GOING ON? A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEOS
[by]HERBERT MEYER

FOUR MAJOR TRANSFORMATIONS
Currently, there are four major transformations that are shaping political, economic and world events. These transformations have profound implications for American business owners, our culture and our way of life.
1. The War in Iraq
There are three major monotheistic religions in the world: Christianity, Judaism and Islam. In the 16th century, Judaism and Christianity reconciled with the modern world. The rabbis, priests and scholars found a way to settle up and pave the way forward. Religion remained at the center of life, church and state became separate. Rule of law, idea of economic liberty, individual rights, human Rights-all these are defining points of modern Western civilization. These concepts started with the Greeks but didn't take off until the 15th and 16th century when Judaism and Christianity found a way to reconcile with the modern world. When that happened, it unleashed the scientific revolution and the greatest outpouring of art, literature and music the world has ever known.
Islam, which developed in the 7th century, counts millions of Moslems around the world who are normal people. However, there is a radical streak within Islam. When the radicals are in charge, Islam attacks Western civilization. Islam first attacked Western civilization in the 7th century, and later in the16th and 17th centuries. By 1683, the Moslems (Turks from the Ottoman Empire) were literally at the gates of Vienna. It was in Vienna that the climatic battle between Islam and Western civilization took place. The West won and went forward. Islam lost and went backward. Interestingly, the date of that battle was September 11. Since then, Islam has not found a way to reconcile with the modern world.
Today, terrorism is the third attack on Western civilization by radical Islam. To deal with terrorism, the U.S. is doing two things. First, units of our armed forces are in 30 countries around the world hunting down terrorist groups and dealing with them. This gets very little publicity. Second we are taking military action in Afghanistan and Iraq. These are covered relentlessly by the media. People can argue about whether the war in Iraq is right or wrong. However, the underlying strategy behind the war is to use our military to remove the radicals from power and give the moderates a chance. Our hope is that, over time, the moderates will find a way to bring Islam forward into the 21st century. That's what our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan is all about.
The lesson of 9/11 is that we live in a world where a small number of people can kill a large number of people very quickly. They can use airplanes, bombs, anthrax, chemical weapons or dirty bombs. Even with a first-rate intelligence service (which the U.S. does not have), you can't stop every attack. That means our tolerance for political horseplay has dropped to zero. No longer will we play games with terrorists or weapons of mass destructions.
Most of the instability and horseplay is coming from the Middle East. That's why we have thought that if we could knock out the radicals and give the moderates a chance to hold power, they might find a way to reconcile Islam with the modern world. So when looking at Afghanistan or Iraq, it's important to look for any signs that they are modernizing. For example, women being brought into the workforce and colleges in Afghanistan is good. The Iraqis stumbling toward a constitution is good. People can argue about what the U.S. is doing and how we're doing it, but anything that suggests Islam is finding its way forward is good.
2. The Emergence of China
In the last 20 years, China has moved 250 million people from the farms and villages into the cities. Their plan is to move another 300 million in the next 20 years. When you put that many people into the cities, you have to find work for them. That's why China is addicted to manufacturing; they have to put all the relocated people to work. When we decide to manufacture something in the U.S., it's based on market needs and the opportunity to make a profit. In China, they make the decision because they want the jobs, which is a very different calculation.
While China is addicted to manufacturing, Americans are addicted to low prices. As a result, a unique kind of economic codependency has developed between the two countries. If we ever stop buying from China, they will explode politically. If China stops selling to us, our economy will take a huge hit because prices will jump. We are subsidizing their economic development; they are subsidizing our economic growth.
Because of their huge growth in manufacturing, China is hungry for raw materials, which drives prices up worldwide. China is also thirsty for oil, which is one reason oil is now at $60+ a barrel. By 2020, China will produce more cars than the U.S. China is also buying its way into the oil infrastructure around the world. They are doing it in the open market and paying fair market prices, but millions of barrels of oil that would have gone to the U.S. are now going to China. China's quest to assure it has the oil it needs to fuel its economy is a major factor in world politics and economics. We have our Navy fleets protecting the sea lines, specifically the ability to get the tankers through. It won't be long before the Chinese have an aircraft carrier sitting in the Persian Gulf as well. The question is, will their aircraft carrier be pointing in the same direction as ours or against us?
3. Shifting Demographics of Western Civilization
Most countries in the Western world have stopped breeding. For a civilization obsessed with sex, this is remarkable. Maintaining a steady population requires a birth rate of 2.1. In Western Europe, the birth rate currently stands at 1.5, or 30 percent below replacement. In 30 years there will be 70 to 80 million fewer Europeans than there are today. The current birth rate in Germany is 1.3. Italy and Spain are even lower at 1.2. At that rate, the working age population declines by 30 percent in 20 years, which has a huge impact on the economy.
When you don't have young workers to replace the older ones, you have to import them. The European countries are currently importing Moslems. Today, the Moslems comprise 10 percent of France and Germany, and the percentage is rising rapidly because they have higher birthrates. However, the Moslem populations are not being integrated into the cultures of their host countries, which is a political catastrophe. One reason Germany and France don't support the Iraq war is they fear their Moslem populations will explode on them. By 2020, more than half of all births in the Netherlands will be non-European.
The huge design flaw in the post-modern secular state is that you need a traditional religious society birth rate to sustain it. The Europeans simply don't wish to have children, so they are dying.
In Japan, the birthrate is 1.3. As a result, Japan will lose up to 60 million people over the next 30 years. Because Japan has a very different society than Europe, they refuse to import workers. Instead, they are just shutting down. Japan has already closed 2000 schools, and is closing them down at the rate of 300 per year. Japan is also aging very rapidly. By 2020, one out of every five Japanese will be at least 70 years old. Nobody has any idea about how to run an economy with those demographics.
Europe and Japan, which comprise two of the world's major economic engines, aren't merely in recession, they're shutting down. This will have a huge impact on the world economy, and it is already beginning to happen. Why are the birthrates so low? There is a direct correlation between abandonment of traditional religious society and a drop in birth rate, and Christianity in Europe is becoming irrelevant. The second reason is economic. When the birth rate drops below replacement, the population ages. With fewer working people to support more retired people, it puts a crushing tax burden on the smaller group of working age people. As a result, young people delay marriage and having a family. Once this trend starts, the downward spiral only gets worse. These countries have abandoned all the traditions they formerly held in regards to having families and raising children.
The U.S. birth rate is 2.0, just below replacement. We have an increase in population because of immigration. When broken down by ethnicity, the Anglo birth rate is 1.6 (same as France) while the Hispanic birth rate is 2.7. In the U.S., the baby boomers are starting to retire in massive numbers. This will push the elder dependency ratio from 19 to 38 over the next 10 to 15 years. This is not as bad as Europe, but still represents the same kind of trend.
Western civilization seems to have forgotten what every primitive society understands-you need kids to have a healthy society. Children are huge consumers. Then they grow up to become taxpayers. That's how a society works, but the post-modern secular state seems to have forgotten that. If U.S. birth rates of the past 20 to 30 years had been the same as post-World War II, there would be no Social Security or Medicare problems.
The world's most effective birth control device is money. As society creates a middle class and women move into the workforce, birth rates drop. Having large families is incompatible with middle class living. The quickest way to drop the birth rate is through rapid economic development. After World War II, the U.S. instituted a $600 tax credit per child. The idea was to enable mom and dad to have four children without being troubled by taxes. This led to a baby boom of 22 million kids, which was a huge consumer market that turned into a huge tax base. However, to match that incentive in today's dollars would cost $12,000 per child.
China and India do not have declining populations. However, in both countries, there is a preference for boys over girls, and we now have the technology to know which is which before they are born. In China and India, many families are aborting the girls. As a result, in each of these countries there are 70 million boys growing up who will never find wives. When left alone, nature produces 103 boys for every 100 girls. In some provinces, however, the ratio is 128 boys to every 100 girls.
The birth rate in Russia is so low that by 2050 their population will be smaller than that of Yemen. Russia has one-sixth of the earth's land surface and much of its oil. You can't control that much area with such a small population. Immediately to the south, you have China with 70 million unmarried men are a real potential nightmare scenario for Russia.
4. Restructuring of American Business
The fourth major transformation involves a fundamental restructuring of American business. Today's business environment is very complex and competitive. To succeed, you have to be the best, which means having the highest quality and lowest cost. Whatever your price point, you must have the best quality and lowest price. To be the best, you have to concentrate on one thing. You can't be all things to all people and be the best.
A generation ago, IBM used to make every part of their computer. Now Intel makes the chips, Microsoft makes the software, and someone else makes the modems, hard drives, monitors, etc. IBM even outsources their call center. Because IBM has all these companies supplying goods and services cheaper and better than they could do it themselves, they can make a better computer at a lower cost. This is called a fracturing of business. When one company can make a better product by relying on others to perform functions the business used to do itself, it creates a complex pyramid of companies that serve and support each other.
This fracturing of American business is now in its second generation. The companies who supply IBM are now doing the same thing-outsourcing many of their core services and production process. As a result, they can make cheaper, better products. Over time, this pyramid continues to get bigger and bigger. Just when you think it can't fracture again, it does. Even very small businesses can have a large pyramid of corporate entities that perform many of its important functions. One aspect of this trend is that companies end up with fewer employees and more independent contractors.
This trend has also created two new words in business.integrator and complementor. At the top of the pyramid, IBM is the integrator. As you go down the pyramid, Microsoft, Intel and the other companies that support IBM are the complementors. However, each of the complementors is itself an integrator for the complementors underneath it. This has several implications, the first of which is that we are now getting false readings on the economy. People who used to be employees are now independent contractors launching their own businesses. There are many people working whose work is not listed as a job. As a result, the economy is perking along better than the numbers are telling us.
Outsourcing also confused the numbers. Suppose a company like General Motors decides to outsource all its employee cafeteria functions to Marriott (which it did). It lays off hundreds of cafeteria workers, who then get hired right back by Marriott. The only thing that has changed is that these people work for Marriott rather than GM. Yet, the headlines will scream that America has lost more manufacturing jobs. All that really happened is that these workers are now reclassified as service workers. So the old way of counting jobs contributes to false economic readings. As yet, we haven't figured out how to make the numbers catch up with the changing realities of the business world.
Another implication of this massive restructuring is that because companies are getting rid of units and people that used to work for them, the entity is smaller. As the companies get smaller and more efficient, revenues are going down but profits are going up. As a result, the old notion that revenues are up and we're doing great isn't always the case anymore. Companies are getting smaller but are becoming more efficient and profitable in the process.

IMPLICATIONS OF THE FOUR TRANSFORMATIONS

1. The War in Iraq
In some ways, the war is going very well. Afghanistan and Iraq have the beginnings of a modern government, which is a huge step forward. The Saudis are starting to talk about some good things, while Egypt and Lebanon are beginning to move in a good direction.
A series of revolutions have taken place in countries like Ukraine and Georgia. There will be more of these revolutions for an interesting reason. In every revolution, there comes a point where the dictator turns to the general and says, Fire into the crowd. If the general fires into the crowd, it stops the revolution. If the general says No, the revolution continues. Increasingly, the generals are saying No because their kids are in the crowd.
Thanks to TV and the Internet, the average 18-year old outside the U.S. is very savvy about what is going on in the world, especially in terms of popular culture. There is a huge global consciousness, and young people around the world want to be a part of it. It is increasingly apparent to them that the miserable government where they live is the only thing standing in their way. More and more, it is the well-educated kids, the children of the generals and the elite, who are leading the revolutions.
At the same time, not all is well with the war. The level of violence in Iraq is much worse and doesn't appear to be improving. It's possible that we're asking too much of Islam all at one time. We're trying to jolt them from the 7th century to the 21st century all at once, which may be further than they can go. They might make it and they might not. Nobody knows for sure. The point is, we don't know how the war will turn out. Anyone who says they know is just guessing.
The real place to watch is Iran. If they actually obtain nuclear weapons it will be a terrible situation. There are two ways to deal with it. The first is a military strike, which will be very difficult. The Iranians have dispersed their nuclear development facilities and put them underground. The U.S. has nuclear weapons that can go under the earth and take out those facilities, but we don't want to do that. The other way is to separate the radical mullahs from the government, which is the most likely course of action.
Seventy percent of the Iranian population is under 30. They are Moslem but not Arab. They are mostly pro-Western. Many experts think the U.S. should have dealt with Iran before going to war with Iraq. The problem isn't so much the weapons, it's the people who control them. If Iran has a moderate government, the weapons become less of a concern.
We don't know if we will win the war in Iraq. We could lose or win. What we're looking for is any indicator that Islam is moving into the 21st century and stabilizing.
2. China
It may be that pushing 500 million people from farms and villages into cities is too much too soon. Although it gets almost no publicity, China is experiencing hundreds of demonstrations around the country, which is unprecedented. These are not students in Tiananmen Square. These are average citizens who are angry with the government for building chemical plants and polluting the water they drink and the air they breathe.
The Chinese are a smart and industrious people. They may be able to pull it off and become a very successful economic and military superpower. If so, we will have to learn to live with it. If they want to share the responsibility of keeping the world's oil lanes open, that's a good thing. They currently have eight new nuclear electric power generators under way and 45 on the books to build. Soon, they will leave the U.S. way behind in their ability to generate nuclear power.
What can go wrong with China? For one, you can't move 550 million people into the cities without major problems. Two, China really wants Taiwan, not so much for economic reasons, they just want it. The Chinese know that their system of communism can't survive much longer in the 21st century. The last thing they want to do before they morph into some sort of more capitalistic government is to take over Taiwan.
We may wake up one morning and find they have launched an attack on Taiwan. If so, it will be a mess, both economically and militarily. The U.S. has committed to the military defense of Taiwan. If China attacks Taiwan, will we really go to war against them? If the Chinese generals believe the answer is no, they may attack. If we don't defend Taiwan, every treaty the U.S. has will be worthless. Hopefully, China won't do anything stupid.
3. Demographics
Europe and Japan are dying because their populations are aging and shrinking. These trends can be reversed if the young people start breeding. However, the birth rates in these areas are so low it will take two generations to turn things around. No economic model exists that permits 50 years to turn things around. Some countries are beginning to offer incentives for people to have bigger families. For example, Italy is offering tax breaks for having children. However, it's a lifestyle issue versus a tiny amount of money. Europeans aren't willing to give up their comfortable lifestyles in order to have more children.
In general, everyone in Europe just wants it to last a while longer. Europeans have a real talent for living. They don't want to work very hard. The average European worker gets 400 more hours of vacation time per year than Americans. They don't want to work and they don't want to make any of the changes needed to revive their economies.
The summer after 9/11, France lost 15,000 people in a heat wave. In August, the country basically shuts down when everyone goes on vacation. That year, a severe heat wave struck and 15,000 elderly people living in nursing homes and hospitals died. Their children didn't even leave the beaches to come back and take care of the bodies. Institutions had to scramble to find enough refrigeration units to hold the bodies until people came to claim them.
This loss of life was five times bigger than 9/11 in America, yet it didn't trigger any change in French society. When birth rates are so low, it creates a tremendous tax burden on the young. Under those circumstances, keeping mom and dad alive is not an attractive option. That's why euthanasia is becoming so popular in most European countries. The only country that doesn't permit (and even encourage) euthanasia is Germany, because of all the baggage from World War II.
The European economy is beginning to fracture. The Euro is down. Countries like Italy are starting to talk about pulling out of the European Union because it is killing them. When things get bad economically in Europe, they tend to get very nasty politically. The canary in the mine is anti- Semitism. When it goes up, it means trouble is coming. Current levels of anti-Semitism are higher than ever. Germany won't launch another war, but Europe will likely get shabbier, more dangerous and less pleasant to live in.
Japan has a birth rate of 1.3 and has no intention of bringing in immigrants. By 2020, one out of every five Japanese will be 70 years old. Property values in Japan have dropped every year for the past 14 years. The country is simply shutting down.
In the U.S. we also have an aging population. Boomers are starting to retire at a massive rate. These retirements will have several major impacts:
Possible massive sell-off of large four-bedroom houses and a movement to condos.
An enormous drain on the treasury. Boomers vote, and they want their benefits, even if it means putting a crushing tax burden on their kids to get them. Social Security will be a huge problem. As this generation ages, it will start to drain the system. We are the only country in the world where there are no age limits on medical procedures. An enormous drain on the health care system. This will also increase the tax burden on the young, which will cause them to delay marriage and having families, which will drive down the birth rate even further.
Although scary, these demographics also present enormous opportunities for products and services tailored to aging populations. There will be tremendous demand for caring for older people, especially those who don't need nursing homes but need some level of care. Some people will have a business where they take care of three or four people in their homes. The demand for that type of service and for products to physically care for aging people will be huge.
Make sure the demographics of your business are attuned to where the action is. For example, you don't want to be a baby food company in Europe or Japan. Demographics are much underrated as an indicator of where the opportunities are. Businesses need customers. Go where the customers are.
4. Restructuring of American Business
The restructuring of American business means we are coming to the end of the age of the employer and employee. With all this fracturing of businesses into different and smaller units, employers can't guarantee jobs anymore because they don't know what their companies will look like next year. Everyone is on their way to becoming an independent contractor. The new workforce contract will be, a Show up at the my office five days a week and do what I want you to do, but you handle your own insurance, benefits, health care and everything else.
Husbands and wives are becoming economic units. They take different jobs and work different shifts depending on where they are in their careers and families. They make tradeoffs to put together a compensation package to take care of the family. This used to happen only with highly educated professionals with high incomes. Now it is happening at the level of the factory floor worker. Couples at all levels are designing their compensation packages based on their individual needs. The only way this can work is if everything is portable and flexible, which requires a huge shift in the American economy.
The U.S. is in the process of building the world's first 21st century model economy. The only other countries doing this are U.K. and Australia. The model is fast, flexible, highly productive and unstable in that it is always fracturing and re-fracturing. This will increase the economic gap between the U.S. and everybody else, especially Europe and Japan.
At the same time, the military gap is increasing. Other than China, we are the only country that is continuing to put money into their military. Plus, we are the only military getting on-the-ground military experience through our war in Iraq. We know which high-tech weapons are working and which ones aren't. There is almost no one who can take us on economically or militarily. There has never been a superpower in this position before.
On the one hand, this makes the U.S. a magnet for bright and ambitious people. It also makes us a target. We are becoming one of the last holdouts of the traditional Judeo-Christian culture. There is no better place in the world to be in business and raise children. The U.S. is by far the best place to have an idea, form a business and put it into the marketplace. We take it for granted, but it isn't as available in other countries of the world.
Ultimately, it's an issue of culture. The only people who can hurt us are ourselves, by losing our culture. If we give up our Judeo-Christian culture, we become just like the Europeans. The culture war is the whole ballgame. If we lose it, there isn't another America to pull us out.

[Herbert Meyer served during the Reagan administration as special assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the CIA's National Intelligence Council. In these positions, he managed production of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimates and other top-secret projections for the President and his national security advisers. Meyer is widely credited with being the first senior U.S. Government official to forecast the Soviet Union's collapse, for which he later was awarded the U.S. National Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal, the intelligence community's highest honor. Formerly an associate editor of FORTUNE, he is also the author of several books.]

Thanks for that excellent article. It's well worth the time required to read it. Everyone really should take the time.

+1 on that....Got me thinking about things I had never considered before. The impact of birth rates, for instance...
Thanks for posting, worth a lunch hour to peruse!

In retrospect, I suppose I'd rather have hispanics than muslims.......

Respectfully posted,
guido2 in Houston

What about Muslim Hispanics?

I really wish everyone already knew this stuff. Why can't we be teaching this kinda reasoning in K-12 instead of College level courses? Yes, it could be considered propaganda if we teach it that young, but the alternative is people who use a system (Capitalism) and don't know why.

It seems that the last 20 years we've taught our students that we are a Capitalist society, but we havn't taught them the advantages AND disadvantages of the system. Now we're swamped with protesters who don't like the disadvantages of our system (i.e. folks who believe everyone has a right to health care), but don't realize that it really is the best system out there. Instead they want to whine about change without proposing realistic solutions.

Likewise, a large number of people in our society aren't willing to admit that our traditional values (Judeo-Christian) have helped us to become the intellectual and economic powerhouse that we are. Does that mean the same values are the best for our future? It's not MY place to decide. However, failing to acknowledge our advantages means that any cultural shifts will not be intentional and focused but rather accidental and floundering.

"The Culture War" really is the biggest picture view of our global awareness, not politics, or environmentalism, or religion etc. Unless we as a society can acknowledge and teach this thought process to successors, we won't make applicable choices, and are as lost as the countries that we tend to look down on.

A few random comments (which will make me as popular as ever, i bet, but please keep it civil):

- the text focuses too strongly on the Islam. the Islam isn't the problem per sé. it's an error often found in american reasoning. there are 2 big different factions in the Islam (Sunni 85% (powered through democracy) and Shi'a 15% (powered through divine command)) & even those aren't the real problem. the real problem is radicalised Islam and manipulation by those in power (governemental or religious alike). Anyway, a lot of pain is not brought on by the Islam, but through a manipulated form.

the writer's obsession with religion becomes downright annoying later in the text when he starts mentioning how many muslims there are in European countries, while he should mention how many badly integrated muslims there are (who are the real problem). but to see this he has to step away from his simplistic views.
integration varies heavily country to country, hell, even region to region. Flanders for instance has excellent integration, where Brussels fails horribly. this has many reasons, which are a bit much to go into right now, but this integration problem will be the real danger, not 'religion' (or the loss of our Judeo-Christian mindset in favor of a more general moral-induced mindset).

- the text seems to believe that Europe is dying and is being taken over by immigrants. we prefer to view it differently. we see it as receiving new blood, which is a gift. it is odd that he fails to see that much of our problem is really similar to his, Europe + muslims versus USA + hispanics. this is probably because he's staring blindly into the religion problem, which is in fact not the source of the problem, but a mere complementing factor. integration is the key here. i feel as if the hispanic problem is often overlooked in favor of the socalled 'islam' problem.

- social security in the EU is better off than in the USA, eventhough we are aging faster. our system is still holding up & we are taking care of people better than the USA's, regardless of his comment. i'm, of course, aware that through our quick aging (even with the 'bloodtransfusion' that is immigration), we'll need to cut back on our social security. heavy reforms will be necessary, but this is just as true for the USA.

- i'm also afraid that the dude is a bit too optimistic when talking about Afghanistan and Iraq...

- the splintering of the economy isn't entirely correctly portrayed either. the division into smaller units is only partly true since while many are dividing into smaller sections, there is at the same time also a pull into bigger corporations with a huge hunger for takeovers. each sector has at least one. these bigger guys also make a lot of use of the subcontracting thing, of course.

anyway, while here it is portrayed as the savior, I doubt it is. the splinters can easily fall like domino's pulling eachother down in their own fall, with social consequences that were hard to imagine when dealing with bigger corporations. the most recent illustration would be the successive deaths of loaning banks in the USA. death toll of how many? 38, last I checked, with a panic reaction on the stockmarket, of course.

now this is no attempt to put the USA in a bad position, just commenting on the situation. this really applies to Europe just as much, because unlike it is said in the text, Europe is doing its share of splintering as well. outsourcing is as popular as ever.

- i'm somewhat disappointed that even though he mentions the media as a powerful force in developing countries (when talking about information and revolutions), but fails to add that this media is just as important at home as it is elsewhere. an example of this would be the fearmongering that we're seeing in Belgium starting in the mid '90s. crimenumbers were really low, the world was relatively safe, etc. yet, the media started to cultivate an aura of fear, through excessively highlighting the few incidents. this was successfully played in upon by extremist parties (often anti-semitic), which are also mentioned in this text.

SuA,
Actually, I am glad you chined in on this one.

The whole point of discussing religion in this essay was to point out the decline (or stabilization) of economies is dependant on adherance to the value systems that created and developed them. The discussion about the conflict in cultures means that, based on Judeo-Christian values versus those of Islam and the desire to have moderate Islamic values win out over radical Islamic values, it is desirable for these values to merge (persumably - peacefully) with the geo-culture that is emerging today. Meyer simply states that the merging is not happening - especially in Europe. While he does point out that Judasim and Christianity went through their reformations to pave the way to become industrialized, innovative countries, he uses this event to to indicate that the Islamic world, despite it's internal conflicts between being moderate or fundementalist, may be entering it's "reformation" period and that we, quite logically, want to moderates to win to ensure peaceful coexistance. But he also points out that in Judeo-Christian cultures, those values aren't as a significant in driving the mentality that created and/or drove them into proserity, therefore, based on the new values that have taken it's place, those enonomies are in decline. Integration of values is not really possible in that environment. That is the juxtaposition. (ie: One culture (value system) trying to come to terms with the modern world while another is persuing a new set of values all together...). Trust me - here in the Southern U.S., we know all about intergration - it's benefits, it's hazzards, it's pitfalls.

As for social security - this statement hits home with me,:
"Boomers are starting to retire at a massive rate. ... Boomers vote, and they want their benefits, even if it means putting a crushing tax burden on their kids to get them."
In a culture where many couples (boomers) had only one child (my generation), it means you quickly get to a point when one person is paying the SS tax to support two people. Social Security in this country is a state sanctioned Ponzi scheme and is doomed to fail; or at least financially cripple this and future generations.


Optimistic? Why? Because he say we could loose or we could win, let hope we win....? Specifically, he said;
"We don't know if we will win the war in Iraq. We could lose or win. What we're looking for is any indicator that Islam is moving into the 21st century and stabilizing."

Anyway - Meyer is just putting forth his analysis of the global economies and their potential future based on changes in values among the cultures at play here. Religion formed the basis for those value no matter where your are talking about; here, Europe, Asia or the Middle East.
I think he covered the American perspective very well. As for your perspective, your results may vary...

(BTW - I did a paper a number of years back on why the Chinese have such a hard-on to get Taiwan. I'd tell you my findings, but you wouldn't believe me. However, I did get an A+ on that paper, from a professor who was the former Diretor of Operations at "Langley"... FWIW.)

While I not only believe the author's credentials to be vastly superior to yours, so is the case he makes. You obviously don't comprehend the difference between your Islamic PROBLEM vs. our Hispanic ASSET. Hispanics have been a major part of American culture for well over 100 years. While we have a problem with illegal immigration we do not have a monumental clash of cultures. I work with a majority Hispanic workforce everyday. They come here and change their names from Alejandro to Alex, from Jaime to Jimmy and so on. They build lives, buy homes and embrace the American way of life. They accept US and we(for the most part) accept them and embrace their culture. May 5th is one of my favorite days of the year. In Europe you have two separate societies that are basically at war with each other, only your side has caught onto that fact yet. The fact that so many of you can't see this despite the burning of Paris(and numerous other examples) and are therefore not even addressing the problem tells me that your time is short. You whining about the author's focus on religion and your denial of the gravity of the issue tells me you are as hopeless as the rest of Europe. These are tough facts for you to accept and we all understand why. Good luck with that. Hopefully Europe's dark days ahead will serve as a negative example to Americans that think as you people do.

I think that a large problem with Islam involves control. Controlling "the commoners" is not a democratic policy. Because of this, the author refers to Islam, which Europeans assume means the religion of Islam, when quite often, as Americans, we speak of Islam when referring to less freedom permissive cultures especially Arabic cultures. Yes, it's probably a misnomer, but at this point it may be too late to change this societies acceptance of the term, mush like the "assault rifle" mis-nomer.

As a matter of fact, the writer DID mention integration of Muslims and others, but I fear that you , SuA, were already too annoyed to notice.


Throughout the 80s and most of the 90s, hispanic immigrants made huge strides to integrate themselves in the US culture, and the problems were few. Now as their numbers swell, less and less immigrants are willing to adapt to the culture they've voluntarily entered, and expect others to change the existing culture to match their preferences. This is a fundamental issue that leads to many of the immigration issues currently being experienced in the US.

In 1907 Theodore Roosevelt said:
"In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in
good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be
treated on an exact equal with everyone else, for it is an outrage to
discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin.
But this is predicated upon the person's becoming in every facet an American,
and nothing but an American...There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man
who says he is an American, but something else also, isn't an American at all.
We have room for but one flag, the American flag... We have room for but one
language here, and that is the English language... and we have room for but one
sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people."
That seems pretty reasonable to me.

European Social Security is not holding up any better than the US. Both are operating at a loss and paying out more than is going in. Since, without major change, both will eventually go broke, they are both financially (sp?) flawed systems. I will admit that a cutoff age for health care is a good idea, but I am a capitalist who believes that noone has a RIGHT to retirement income or health care. I believe that individuals who need care should have saved at an earlier point in their life, and I also believe that the persons immediate family has a moral obligation to help them. Yes, that is a rather traditional view that would leave a few people "out in the cold" but I think that like true captialism, it hurts the least numbers of people possible.

SuA, you may believe that the authors ideas on Afghanistan and Iraq are optomistic, but I suggest that is a result of your media "over there" because you havn't submitted any arguments in support of your position.

You state that the economy is less fractured than suggested, because of some large companies merging. But if those large companies are already "fractured" or do soon after, then there is no "combining force" only an acquiring of physical assets. That's the same as buying more equipment at the store, not growing companies.

Only 38 banks died? How is that bad? I'm sure many more lending institutions were born when companies sprung up when they saw an opportunity to make money. Companies coming and going, is not inherently a bad thing. Just like changing employers is not inherently bad, but "the devil is in the details."

Also, despite what your media may have portrayed, the recent stock dip was preceded by "crashes" in the Japanese and Chinese and a few European markets. Actually the US exchange suffered a lot less than several other countries. It was not PRIMARILY attributed to a "cog in the wheel" or a outsourced company that failed.

"Lock n' load"....(just joking!)

guido2 in Houston (mega hispanics AND muslims!!!)

And, as mentoined by busy_squirrel, the vast majority of new (younger) hispanics are not eager to integrate or assimiliate, they are increasingly militant and Nationalist (lots of Mexican.Central/South American flags displayed) and are increasingly reluctant to do anything that puts them at any less than equality with the citizens of this country. That can not develop into a good thing.

Respectfully posted,
guido2 in Houston

very good post +10!

on the mexican commentary, they have been the only immigrants who have had the audacity to refuse to conform & demand extra special rights that thanks to Hillary, have made them a special interest.

Ask any polish or italian if they had special teachers in school if they did not want to speak english.

Thanks for posting Macbeau. That was a good read.

glad to please someone for once. and always nice to have a civil discussion about such things.


on this subject, i think we agree more or less, but aren't accepting eachother's labels/wording or the emphasis we put on the various elements.
for instance, it is revolting to me that the term muslim is so often put in a bad light and flung around as if it was a synonym to the problems we are experiencing.

what made me say that his focus on religion is annoying is stuff like this:

Europeans have shed a purely religious label, but kept most of the values that were in our (mostly) catholic culture. we are a post-industrial society, that works to live, instead of living to work.

he parades his 'judeo-christian' culture as the savior of the replacement level of the american birthrate and by extension what will save the USA to crumble as he believes that Europe is doing. he even mentions that this is not due to the anglo birth rate which is on par with the European one, but due to the huge birthrate of hispanics. yet he does not say that many of those very hispanics are fighting the very judeo-christian culture he parades around as the savior.

as said before, we replenish with muslims, you replenish with hispanics. different name, pretty much same problem, regardless of the religious label he uses.


i have to agree completely. i think anyone can see this, eventhough some accents are placed differently in Europe than in the USA. this will probably be one of our greatest challenges in the coming 5 decennia, for the entire western world.
this is probably even more dangerous & tricky than the whole terrorist/extremist-issue.


too optimistic because several times he highlights the positive changes he has seen, while i fear that those positive changes may be smaller than the negative changes that can be witnessed around the world (outside of the direct conflict zones) as a reaction to this war.

this includes (but is obviously not restricted to):
- the USA loosing political credit with other western nations, there where this credit was more needed than ever to attempt to figure out a solution to our shared problem.
- legitimising the extremist cause (through lying about the motivation, by adding religious rhetoric to speeches, by portraying the Islam as the enemy, by creating an Axis of Evil)


i will never deny that religion shaped the society's morals and values.
it is even part of how i view most religions: a way to pass on morals and values in times where laws were not fixed and could change very rapidly depending on who was in power. (amongst a lot of other things, but to discuss them might be a little too volatile and would derail this threat entirely)


why wouldn't i believe you?
i'd be interested to hear about it, although i must admit i might not be able to offer much in depth discussion of your arguments. my knowledge of the Taiwan situation barely scratches the surface.

well, isn't this the pot calling the kettle black?

- if hispanics are so accepted, why are they changing names? that doesn't sound like acceptance to me, rather trying to desperately conform so that he'd have a better chance at getting a job. also read the reactions of your own countrymen on the subject in this very thread.
- i went to school with muslims. i've worked with muslims. my father remarried with a muslim woman and now about 1/4th of my family is arab & muslim. i couldn't be happier, they're great people.
- the Paris riots? well, would you like me to name american racial riots then? how about LA to start off? oh look: 1 death for Europe in its biggest riot, and 53 dead on the USA side, for one of many riots. aw chucks! europe is DOOMED!
- european 'white' marches (white for hope and peace, not skincolor...) had exponentially greater turnup in muslims than any riot.

so basically all arguments you just used can be reversed against you. if you come up with more, i'll be glad to attempt to refute them from a 'eurotrash' point of view, Groaner.



yes, he did and i did notice, but the emphasis lays wrong.

and as i stated above, it could indeed be a problem of semantics and mislabeling. but if this misnomer troubles me, an atheist so much, than you can imagine how much it would trouble an actual muslim? that's just asking for trouble...


i didn't say we were holding up better, but that our system serves the people better. since you're a true capitalist as you put it, your idea of 'better' will of course be vastly different from mine (eventhough i vote for the most 'capitalist' party in my country).
also, there is no cut off age at all overhere. not in my country anyway. maybe there is in the UK, France or Germany, so he might be refering to them, but not here.


see above


euhm, while the merging companies are also outsourcing some things, they do keep growing, so not just 'being furniture'. take for example Oracle or Suez (although you'll probably don't know the latter).


just saying that the damage to the individual is probably more severe when a small company faceplants than when a big company goes down.


i didn't mean to suggest that outsourcing was to blame, just illustrating how that kind of 'string' can be pulled down like dominos.


PS: sorry for the doublepost, but it wouldn't let me post that many quote-tags

There is no such thing as "desperaton to conform" in my country, hell I don't even know what one would conform to. We have a melting pot. We have Mexicans Americanizing their names out of love for our culture and Americans who have Mexicanized their diets because we are so open to other cultures. Your premise is so off base I don't even know where to begin to try to relate with you. So I'm not going to bother. Instead I will give another example of YOUR perspective so AMERICANS understand the mentality we are dealing with here and why you represent a dying society. So what's in your future? Migration, beheading, conversion or dhimmitude? It looks like your countrymen are opting for dhimmitude...



Islamicization of Antwerp

TODAY'S COLUMNIST
By Paul Belien
March 14, 2007



The decisive battle against Islamic extremists will not be fought in Iraq, but in Europe. It is not in Baghdad but in cities like Antwerp, Belgium, where the future of the West will be decided.
I recently met Marij Uijt den Bogaard, a 49-year-old woman who deserves America's support at least as much as Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
Ms. Uijt den Bogaard was an Antwerp civil servant in the 1990s, who spent many years working in the immigrant neighborhoods of Antwerp. There she noticed how radical Islamists began to take over. "They work according to a well-defined plan," she says.
One of the things Ms. Uijt den Bogaard used to do for the immigrants was to assist them with their administrative paperwork. Quite a few of them came to trust her.
About three years ago, young men dressed in black moved into the neighborhoods. They had been trained in Saudi Arabia and Jordan and adhere to Salafism, a radical version of Islam. They set up youth organizations, which gradually took over the local mosques. "The Salafists know how to debate and they know the Qur'an by heart, while the elderly running the mosques do not," she said They also have money. "One of them told me that he gets Saudi funds." Because they are eloquent, the radicals soon became the official spokesmen of the Muslim community, also in dealing with the city authorities. Ms. Uijt den Bogaard witnessed how the latter gave in to Salafist demands, such as the demand for separate swimming hours for Muslim women in the municipal pools.
Worried immigrants told Ms. Uijt den Bogaard what was happening. On the basis of their accounts and her own experiences she wrote (confidential) reports for the city authorities about the growing radicalization. This brought her into conflict, both with the Islamists and her bosses in the city.
The city warned her that her reports were unacceptable, that they read like "Vlaams Belang tracts" (the Vlaams Belang is Antwerp's anti-immigrant party) and that she had to "change her attitude." The Islamists sensed that she disapproved of them. They might also have been informed, because there are Muslims working in the city administration. One day, when she was accompanied by her superior, she was attacked by a Muslim youth. Her superior refused to interfere. When she questioned him afterward he said that all the animosity toward her was her own fault.
In the end she was fired. She is unemployed at the moment and gets turned away whenever she applies for another job as a civil servant. Last week, she learned that city authorities have given the job of integration officer, whose task it is to supervise 25 Antwerp mosques, to one of the radical Salafists. Meanwhile, the latter have threatened her with reprisals if she continues to speak out.
After her dismissal Ms. Uijt den Bogaard went to see Monica Deconinck, a Socialist politician who is the head of the Antwerp social department, to tell her about the plight of the Muslim women. Ms. Deconinck said, "You have taken your job too seriously and tried to do it too well," adding that she cannot help, although she sympathizes. Ms. Uijt den Bogaard also went to see Christian Democrat and Liberal politicians. They also refused to help her because they are governing the city in a coalition with the Socialists. The only opposition party in town is the Vlaams Belang.
According to Ms. Uijt den Bogaard, the reason why the Socialists, who run the city, allow the Islamists to do as they please is because they want to get the Muslim vote, which is controlled increasingly by the Salafists who are in the process of taking over the mosques.
In a letter to city authorities she wrote: "You employ workers to improve social cohesion in the city's neighborhoods. But if you do not want to know what is damaging social cohesion, then you need not bother sending those workers!... Employees who are confronted with this problem [of Muslim radicalization] and investigate are silently removed, losing their income and their reputation. That is censorship in the fashion of political dictatorships. As a former member of your services I am shocked to find myself in this position and to discover after years of service that you have no policy whatever, either political or with regard to your personnel."
Sadly, what is happening in Antwerp is not unique. The Salafists employ the same strategy in other European cities. They boasted to Ms. Uijt den Bogaard about their international network and their successes in neighboring countries. While the Americans fight to secure Iraq, Western Europe is becoming a hotbed of Salafism.

Paul Belien is editor of the Brussels Journal and an adjunct fellow of the Hudson Institute.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/op-ed...0315-9588r.htm

Thanks for posting, interesting read.
I for one am an example, Im 1/8 Native American, 1/8 Native (Indian from the amzon) south American, 6/8s Euro trash. American mother, Venezuelan Father. Born overseas and lived there till age 12.. Have been here the last 14 years. 911 was a turning point in my global view, more like a slap in the face.
I for one knew as soon as the second plane impacted the perpertrators were neither, Hispanic, nor American. Neither culture has that much resentment. The only culture capable of producing such insanity is one of extreme oppression. One that beats women, burns books, and silences disident voices.. Im not generalizing about muslims,on the contrary I believe the vast majority to be God loving people, however those on the fringes pose the biggest threat.
One of the thing that really worries me about the Media coverage of global issues is how little has actually been said about Chavez and how most people see him as a goblin rather than a real threat. He is best buddies w/the leaders of North korea, Iran, Syria, and even rode in Sadam's drop top. He is well within striking distance of this country, is also a megalomaniac, has untold billions constantly comming in. Has sistematically fractured the Venezuela and polarized it. Has cleverly and ruthlessly saught out and quelled his oppossition. He is in the processed of closing down all the avenues of free expression left in that country. I wasn't alive in 1938 but my little knowledge of hystory makes all his actions seem somewhat foreboading. This has flown under the radar in such a way, by the time anything is done it will be much more costly necessary.
Im enjoying the disscussion on this topic very much
Standing by

eating tacos is being open to other cultures? haha, some of the most radical racist parties in my country orders chinese and italian food for some of their meetings. how very "open to culture" of them!


ah yes, the beheading card. always gets pulled by you, huh... at least you can be happy when my head finally gets chopped off, right?


telling half a story is nice, isn't it? i hope this article isn't representative of the washington post. (probably isn't, since it's a column written by a foreigner and not an article)

a few things you should know:
- the woman in question works closely with the most racist party of belgium and has been writing rather racist texts (both in Belgium and the Netherlands) for quite some time now.
- turns out that the belgian secret service has been keeping a close eye on those mosques in question and has been recording every coming & going. they've also had contacts with several youths that are in those mosques, but against radicalisation. in other words, yes, we are aware of the problem, which is far from being as simplistic as you paint it to be.
(it would be well within the realm of possibilities btw that the secret service asked the city officials not to rock the boat, but the woman refused)
i'd expect that you as an American should be very aware that one should thread lightly when it comes to religious liberties. if this situation is badly handled, it will trigger exactly what we're trying to prevent...
- the writer of your article/column, Paul Belien, just happens to be working for the Vlaams Belang. why yes, the most racist party of belgium. he is the publicist of several extreme rightwing pamflets. he was one of the respresentatives Vlaams Belang has sent to the USA in the past to respresent them and their interests.
- for Vlaams Belang, winning elections in Antwerp is their most immediate goal. they've failed last time. how could this article possibly help to turn that around? i wonder...

for those who still don't get the point:
Vlaams Belang has direct links to neo-nazi circles (one particular neonazi organisation even provides 'security' for most of their manifestations) and employs many negationist polititians. VB also used to have a kind of 'secret service' of their own, collecting dirt on everyone that wasn't politically aligned with them and has also been accused of falsifying evidence in some court cases that were of interest to them.
part of their political agenda is the total destruction of the Belgian state, in order to form a Flemish state, loose from the Walloons (sp?).

you do the math... in the future, you might want to check that your 'source' isn't the most radical, anti-semitic, rightwing, racist, seperationist and undemocratic party in the country. it might lend more credibility to your tale...

FWIW, I'm 10/10 Eurotrash Immigrant and a voting American Citizen since 1984. You're right that Chavez poses a threat, he is reigniting the Communist flame in our hemisphere but we've lived with that kind of threat for a very long time now and deal with it effectively but it's not a suicidal death cult and radical Islam is. We haven't proven to be as good at containing that threat so we better make damn sure it doesn't get a foothold in America.

Or, it could be the COMPROMISE that is inherent in any integration. If changing your name is the worst things can get, than life must really suck for all those women who changed their name when they got married. Let's be real, integration isn't about acceptance. Immigrants come here for a life that they think will be better, otherwise they wouldn't come here. Almost anything that makes your life better takes work. How hard are they willing to work for that? How much would someone be willing to give up to make the lives of themselves and their family better? Immigrants sacrifice a little luxury now, so that the future will be better, for immigrants AND their offspring. This is known as delayed gratification. That's what immigration has always been about.


So let's dig up the past to make a point. Bad strategy in any discussion. Would ticking off the problems Europe had outweigh the problems the US has had in the past? Probably, the US hasn't been around as long. That doesn't mean the US has no problems, but implying the LA riots were about race would be MOSTLY wrong. They were mostly about class, which is why the whole city wasn't "under seige", but only certain neighborhoods.


I can absolutely see how that miscommunication could cause problems, but if a society has accepted a term, it's not likely to change quickly.


Yep, a few people lose everything when a small business goes down, and a lot of people suffer the loss of their job and maybe retirement when a big company goes down. It's my simplified view that Capitalists tend to spread "misery and poverty" over a bell curve and a few people get hosed, a few get lauded, and most people are somewhere in between. An equally simplfied view of Socialism is that they would tend to spread misery over more people, so that no one person has to suffer "too much". I prefer to take my chances at being in the middle or beneficial end of the bell curve.


That was a result of globalization, nor "fractured economies".


I'm glad this discussion has remained civil, unlike SOME forums I visit...

Like I said your perspective is so fucked up it's difficult to know where to start. I live with Blacks, Hispanics and Asians of all type EVERYDAY of my life. They are my friends, neighbors and co-workers. I BBQ with them on weekends... their kids play with my kids and in a couple of case end up marrying my neices and nephews. You are just a clueless and obstinate MFer that thinks what he sees on TV about this country is true. The racism that exists here is practiced mainly among the "poor". It is the very thing that holds them down more than any other. The American Middle to Upper-class is too educated and too busy earning a comfortable living along side of people of other races and cultures than their own to give a rat's ass about hating them for it. Instead we integrate our cultures and enjoy the best each has to offer. Racism is for losers and the vast majority of Americans understand this... the rest shoot themselves in the foot. The rabble in this country believes that Republicans are racist and Democrats are not when it can be easily demonstrated that quite the opposite is much closer to the truth. You don't know your enemies or your friends. You are truly hopeless. Hopefully Americans will be watching your society crumble on TV(although France is now restricting press activity in it's war-torn burbs) and are hopefully learning from your shortsightedness. It really is like watching the 1930s being played out all over again, only this time there will be no way to save you from what can only be described as civil issues in sovereign nations. We'll cry for you and accept some refugees I'm sure. I'm very lucky, I've been able to see so much of what Europe was... funny the only thing I really remember from your country was that I really enjoyed the food(there I go with the food again) and a weird statue of some little boy taking a piss that's supposed to be some kind of national treasure... whatever???? I would have liked to have toured the FN plant and maybe got a glimpse of whatever it was John Moses Browning saw in you people but alas that was then and this is now. It's a damn shame.

That where most people have it wrong. Chavez is Islamisising Venezuela. I have seen first hand a Mosk insde the largest Goverment run petroquemical plant. He is importing 100's of thousands of AKs and also has a vast Cuban run Security network. He is not only radical , he is rich and and has the best spinmeisters this planet has to offer on his side ( those who have kept Castro in power). He has given vast tracts of jungle to Iran, its a only a matter of time before he reveals himself as an sympathiser of the terrorists we despise..How far must he go before we see him as something that need to be addressed.

Really??? Other than your post I haven't seen or read anything indicating that Chavez was Islamic. I'm going to have to research this...

Funny... I actually discussed all of your options except one and you chose the beheading option to focus on?? It's sad really.

Thats the point. He wants it under the radar, the truth is the majority of the countries oil industry is already being run by Arabs( who have no alligence to the Venezuelan People other than Chavez himself). This industry is the countries main life line and supposed to be a national resource, independent and secular. He has already been successful at this. (I admire the fact you want to research it) It is not speculation just kept very hush hush.. Don't ask me what sort of influence he holds on global media but having been there since this all went down ( no I didn't leave to escape him) I can say unequivically he holds a very strong influence on the media outlets. He is funding the political campaigns of any leader who swears him alligence and he has the muscle to get them where he wants them. He migth not be a "Muslim" himself but he sure as hell is an extrimist and panders to the leaders of the so called axis of evil. He has been photographed on many occassions been chummy w/them. I wonder what they talk about, I for one am certain it aint about human rigths, or education.. How long is it before we see where this will all likely lead..
Like I said many thought in 38 hitler was a bit wierd not certainly not a threat worth goinng to war over. Sure his ideal aren't democratic but weve lived w/ the threat for a long time.. IMHO this makes it no less dangerous...
Oh yeah I forgot to mention, he is making himself alligible for indefinite "re-elections" ( i use the term loosely) and has already taken away the peoples rigth to defend themselves( rigth the previously had).

how nice of you to call me names yet against and replying yet again without actually bringing forth arguments that regard the discussion. me being a "MFer" and you not being a racist really has no bearing on this discussion (and i never implied you were btw).


the statue is a gift from the dutch in the 17th century. so don't blame us for its weirdness...
coming to the food, it's said we offer french quality and german quantity. the best of both worlds.
afaik FN Herstal doesnt allow random visitors. the odd pre-arranged group perhaps, but no random tourists.


but it is the one that you've repeatedly threathened me with before... you put the focus, not me.

funny of you accusing me of being sad while you haven't refuted any statement with anything but calling me dumb, blind or a motherfucker.

That was rather dishonest on your part. You denying the facts presented is not the same as me not presenting them. You simply deny the facts presented and attack the messenger with accusations of racism the EXACT same way the American left does. There is no convincing obstinate koolaid drinkers(better?) like you so why try? I will keep posting the facts and you can keep your head in the sand and make my point for me. Nothing will slow your fall until you stop denying that a problem exists. Again I hope very much that the elements in my country with a similar mentality as yours can learn from your negative example. That's too bad about FN but then again I'm more interested in what comes out of the Izhmash plant these days than old Brownings. It doesn't surprise me at all that the thing I like most about Belgium is the American firearms they've produced.

The Coming War with Islam
By Solly Ganor
FrontPageMagazine.com | March 15, 2007

Five years ago, I had a conversation with a young Palestinian student who in short precise terms explained how Islam will defeat the West. The conversation opened my eyes to a much larger picture in which Israel plays only a minor role in the Islamic game of conquest. Since then I tried to speak to some Arabs who come to pray at the Mosque, but they were not as outspoken as the student.

Last week, I had another conversation with an Israeli Arab construction boss by the unlikely name of Francis who was in charge of building a villa near our house in Herzelia. He told me that his family was Christian, and his name was given to him in honor of the Franciscan monks. Our conversation was as interesting as the first conversation I had with the Arab student five years ago and I would like to share it with you. Francis frequently parked his car near our house and we would exchange polite greetings.

About a week ago, the water was shut off for repairs in the house he was building, and Francis asked me if I could give him some hot water for his coffee. He was a tall man of about forty, with reddish hair and blue eyes. He spoke a perfect Hebrew, and I naturally became curious about him. I felt that he may the right person to exchange some views with. By his looks, I assumed that he was either a Druze or from the Syrian region. He looked more like a teacher than a construction worker and, as I later found out, he was actually a teacher by profession. Since my conversation with the student five years ago, I was always curious to hear their side of the story; therefore, I decided to invite him for a cup of coffee to our house. I saw him hesitate for a moment; then he smiled and thanked me for my hospitality.

While we drank our coffee, he told me that he was from a small village in the Galilee called Jish, near the present Kibbutz Sassa. I remembered the village very well as I was one of the soldiers who captured the village while serving in the 7th Armored brigade during the War of Independence in 1948. I decided not to tell him about it because at the time we encountered some stiff resistance at that village and quite a few of the inhabitants were killed.

He went on to tell me a little about himself. “For a while I was a teacher and I loved teaching, but I couldn’t make a living at it and I decided to join my father in law who is in the construction business.” Judging by the large Honda he was driving, I figured that he didn’t do too badly changing his profession.

Our conversation soon turned to the present situation in the Middle East, about Hamas winning the elections, the situation of the Israeli Arabs, and the last Lebanese war against Hezbollah. “As Christians we are in a difficult situation here in Israel. Unfortunately, the Moslems and especially the extreme Islamist section, are giving the tone here. My family who lived in Bethlehem probably since the Crusaders, had to flee for their life. The Moslems have been forcing us out, by threats and even murder. Bethlehem that was once predominantly Christian is now predominantly Moslem. Very little is written about it even in the Israeli press.”

He sipped his coffee and gave me a long look. He seemed like someone who wasn’t quite sure whether to say what he was about to say. I gave him an encouraging nod.

“I have to tell you something which very few of you seem to comprehend.” He continued, “Your bungling war against a few thousand Hezbollah fighters which you should have crushed no matter what, considering the importance of the outcome, has created a completely new situation, not only for this area, but globally. Your inept leadership totally misunderstood the importance of winning this war."

“As a matter of fact, the whole Moslem world, not only the Arabs, simply couldn’t believe that the mighty Israeli Army that defeated the combined Arab forces in six days in 1967, and almost captured Cairo and Damascus in 1973, couldn’t defeat a small army of Hezbollah men. As usual the Moslems see things the way they want to see things. Most think that the present generation of Israelis have gone soft and can be defeated."

“The American bungling of the war in Iraq only added to their conviction that victory not only over Israel but also over the West is not only possible, but certain. The ramifications of these two bungling wars may bring an Islamic bloody Tsunami all over the West, not only in Israel. The sharks smell blood and these two wars gave them the green light to attack sooner than they had in mind. Your problem is that you are on the defensive and they have the option to choose the time and the places when and where to attack and there is nothing much you can do about it. When will you Westerners realize that half measures don’t work with people who are willing to die by the thousands for Allah to achieve their goal? In their eyes the Western World is simply an abomination on earth that has to be wiped out.”

He spoke quietly and I could just picture him in the school giving his students a lecture. I poured him another cup of coffee and encouraged him to continue.

“The Americans, the Europeans, and even you Israelis really don’t know what it is all about, do you? During the last generation hundreds of thousands of children have been taught all over the Moslem world in Madrass schools to become martyrs for Allah in order to kill the infidels. These youngsters not only are ready to do it, but are actually in the process of doing it. Bombs are going off all over the world killing and maiming thousands of people, not only on 9/11 in the US, in London Madrid and Bali, but in Africa, India, Bengladesh, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and many other places. The first signs of the Islamic Tsunami is already here, but the West doesn’t understand, or doesn’t want to understand what is coming."

“The Americans, instead of realizing that this is as bad as World War Two, or even worse, are going to pull out of Iraq, handing it over to Iran on a silver platter. Next may come the Saudis and the rest of the Gulf states. When dirty bombs go off all over Western towns, who is going to stop the Iranians?"

“Now is the time to stop them, not only because they are developing nuclear bombs, but because Iran has become the base for all Islamic terrorist. They supply, money, men, and weapons to Islamic terrorist around the world, quite often through their diplomatic mail. Billions of petro-dollars that are pouring into Iran are being funneled into terrorist organizations world-wide. They believe, and perhaps rightly so, that the West will do nothing to stop them in achieving their goals. Is history repeating itself? Are the Iranians making the same mistake that Hitler made when he attacked Poland? Is the situation similar?"

“As a history teacher who studied the subject thoroughly I can tell you that Western victory in World War Two was not all certain. Hitler could have won the war if he would have gone ahead with the atomic bomb development before the Americans. The Germans began working on it in the thirties, and it was Hitler’s decision to prefer building more conventional arms, as he considered atomic weapons sheer fantasy. Hitler made the wrong decision, but had he made the right decision the world would have been a different type of world today, wouldn’t it? The West won the war against Hitler by sheer chance. Very few people seem to realize that.”

I must say that his last words shook me up quite a bit. Had Hitler made a different decision, I would have died in Dachau, there wouldn’t have been a Jewish state called Israel, and most likely there wouldn’t have been any Jews left in the world. The idea that the Western democracies in general and the fate of the Jewish people in particular could have hinged on Hitler’s one decision, is a scenario of the worst nightmare.

He notices that his last words had an effect on me, and he smiled. “I see that my words are not wasted on you,” he said dryly. I nodded, and he continued with his lecture. “Coming back to our time, the Iranians rely on the West doing nothing about their development of nuclear bombs. They also rely on their secret weapon: an inexhaustible supply of Islamic suicide bombers, some of them who are already planted all over the Western World. Besides the Islamic countries that supply these suicide bombers, a second front has been opened, and that is the Internet with more than five thousand Islamic web sites, brain washing and urging young Moslems to become martyrs for Allah. They especially target young Moslems who live in Europe and the West in general. The Western intelligence authorities consider these web sites a bigger threat than the Iranian atomic bomb. Al-Qaeda recently issued a television broadcast that promised a devastating attack against its enemies this spring. As we all know, Al-Qaeda doesn’t make empty threats."

“Actually, I don’t understand why the Iranians bother to develop atomic bombs and bring the whole world down on them. Every suicide bomber is a potential atomic bomb, or a biological, chemical or dirty bomb that can be no less devastating than an atom bomb. The Americans and Europeans have no defense against this type of war."

“What can we do against this type warfare?” I asked him. “Well, you Israelis, should better prepare yourself for another round against Hezbollah. It will not be long in coming. It depends on the Iranians to give the word. This time you will have to destroy Hezbollah no matter what the cost may be."

“Of course, your next round against Hezbollah may involve the Syrians and the Iranians against you. The Iranians declared that they will not allow Hezbollah to be defeated no matter what and may launch their missiles against you. So will the Syrians. What will Israel do? It is unlikely that Israel will accept its destruction and may use their nuclear arsenal if the West will not come to their help. Perhaps our book of Revelation is not so wrong in describing that the end of the world would start at Armageddon, which we know as Har-Megiddo in Israel. The book of Revelati