World War III?

[Paulyski 2,227]

http://www.youtube.c...d&v=l-3xeP7NFRE

 

Isn't about time we get all this pretend to like China bullshit over with anyway ?

[jmzzl 146]

Red Dawn?

[DrThunder88 912]

This has started me thinking: if you had to choose between one or the other, would you prefer a Maoist Iran or the current Islamist Iran? On the one hand, the atheistic Communists would not necessarily be on a genocidal, apocalyptic bend to destroy Israel, relieving some pressure in the Middle East. If Tehran were to become a subsidiary to Beijing, there would also seem to be a lower chance of some tinhorn dictator rising to power and causing havoc with the nuclear weapons I think Iran will eventually possess.

 

On the other hand, I don't know what China's petroleum stocks and resources look like, but having an OPEC member in their pocket and only a few -stans away could further fuel their economic growth and worldwide military influence. There's also the problem of getting the Chinese to Iran in the event that their bluff is called. Along the Silk Road is Afghanistan. While I'd almost rather see a satellite Communist dictatorship there than the reemergence of the next Taliban, the potential mineral wealth of Afghanistan makes it too important to leave to the reds.

 

Anyway, I doubt any conflict will start with the usual bombs and bullets. Hostilities will more than likely commence with political and economic salvos, and, as mighty a machine as the United States is, decades of complacency and poor choices have left us with compromised defensive and lackluster offensive capabilities in that regard.

[thebuns1 4,323]

well the Afghan groups i would consider a tougher foe would not be the taliban, but the mujahideen. they used old school weapons against the soviets in the late '70's and early 80's, and drove them to a stale mate, so to speak.

 

and china, well i dont worry about china like most people do. they have the man power and resources to fight a long war, sure, but theres one thing at the moment they dont have, and thats the WILL to carry it out. now N. Korea on the other hand has all the components to wage full scale war against the US. and currently are the #1 contender that our government is worried most about.

 

but to be honest, i dont see the US doing anything productive in any war against anyone until we can effectivley remove our shitty rules of engagement from the equation, and start letting our military ground troops fight a war the way it needs to be fought. far too much politics involved in our strategy on war now days. and that shit wont fly with an all out war with china or N. korea. unless we want our ass handed to us.

 

im just curious on how long china will hold out before calling us up on the massive debt we owe them... that will be interesting.

[yakdung 2,926]

I suspect covert operations are underway in Iran.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-bomb-20111205,0,7550482.story

Yakdung

Edited December 5, 2011 by yakdung

[MT Predator 2,294]

well the Afghan groups i would consider a tougher foe would not be the taliban, but the mujahideen. they used old school weapons against the soviets in the late '70's and early 80's, and drove them to a stale mate, so to speak.

The Mujahideen and Taliban are some of the same guys, just under a different name. Bin Laden was a Mujahideen recruit during that time. The Mujahideen were supplied the same small arms as the Soviets were using by the CIA as well as Stinger missiles which were very modern at the time. They had the homefield advantage as well, just like the Taliban does today.

 

I suspect covert operations are underway in Iran.

 

Yakdung

Pretty sure we have come across their borders from both sides.

[iarneau 44]

I don't see China initiating any hostilities against us, just about every other item I pick up in a store has 'made in China' on the tag. They fire at us, we stop importing from them, a big part of their economy is gone. Not to mention all the factories and call centers we have over there that would leave and take that many jobs from their country.

 

If anything, they'll fund a third world country to fight the third world country that we're 'sectetly' funding like happened during the cold war. We won't be fighting directly but fighting through puppets wouldn't be a first.

[thebuns1 4,323]

well the Afghan groups i would consider a tougher foe would not be the taliban, but the mujahideen. they used old school weapons against the soviets in the late '70's and early 80's, and drove them to a stale mate, so to speak.

The Mujahideen and Taliban are some of the same guys, just under a different name. Bin Laden was a Mujahideen recruit during that time. The Mujahideen were supplied the same small arms as the Soviets were using by the CIA as well as Stinger missiles which were very modern at the time. They had the homefield advantage as well, just like the Taliban does today.

 

I suspect covert operations are underway in Iran.

 

Yakdung

Pretty sure we have come across their borders from both sides.

 

correct me if im wrong, but has anyone been able to conquer them yet? i havent read much about them in the past year or so.

 

i find it ironic that when reagan was in office how he referred to them as "freedom fighters". go figure....

Edited December 6, 2011 by Captain Hero

[MT Predator 2,294]

correct me if im wrong, but has anyone been able to conquer them yet? i havent read much about them in the past year or so.

 

i find it ironic that when reagan was in office how he referred to them as "freedom fighters". go figure....

Conquer who, the Mujahideen? Some of those guys ended up Taliban, others Northern Alliance helping us, and so on. They were Freedom Fighters who did free themselves from Soviet Occupation.

[thebuns1 4,323]

thanks for the info MT. i was under the impression that most, if not all ended up taliban.

 

im curious to see how things will unfold after our troops are pulled out.

Edited December 6, 2011 by Captain Hero

[Scott Kenny 144]

I don't see China initiating any hostilities against us, just about every other item I pick up in a store has 'made in China' on the tag. They fire at us, we stop importing from them, a big part of their economy is gone. Not to mention all the factories and call centers we have over there that would leave and take that many jobs from their country.

 

If anything, they'll fund a third world country to fight the third world country that we're 'sectetly' funding like happened during the cold war. We won't be fighting directly but fighting through puppets wouldn't be a first.

Quoted for Truth, both items.

 

And I'd much rather see a 'Maoist' Iran, even though China isn't very Maoist anymore. Haven't been since about 1972, really.

[DrThunder88 912]

I don't see the US stopping imports as hurting China over the long run. With up-and-coming economies in India and Southeast Asia and established middle classes in Europe, its not unlikely that China would find a willing market for its crap without the US. I'd worry, as someone else mentioned, about the big chunks of American debt that the Chinese own. I don't know much about international finance, but it seems that if Beijing issued an announcement that they were no longer buying US debt, the value of bonds could drop. This could make it harder to sell bonds in the future.

[MT Predator 2,294]

thanks for the info MT. i was under the impression that most, if not all ended up taliban.

 

im curious to see how things will unfold after our troops are pulled out.

Yeah, like Pakistan rolling in and taking over.

[Scott Kenny 144]

I don't see the US stopping imports as hurting China over the long run. With up-and-coming economies in India and Southeast Asia and established middle classes in Europe, its not unlikely that China would find a willing market for its crap without the US. I'd worry, as someone else mentioned, about the big chunks of American debt that the Chinese own. I don't know much about international finance, but it seems that if Beijing issued an announcement that they were no longer buying US debt, the value of bonds could drop. This could make it harder to sell bonds in the future.

It wouldn't hurt over the long run, but it's questionable whether China could hold on for the 10 years it'd take to re-establish their trading partnerships.

 

Not entirely. China has already announced that they don't want to hold as much US debt, they have too many dollars in their FOREX reserves right now. It's not the same as refusing to buy more. Technically, you could "refuse to buy more debt" and still be in the market as the old debt you hold matures and gets paid off. You're just rolling over the debt owed to you in that case.

 

The Chinese Communist Party has a contract with the Chinese people: in exchange for a large quantity of freedoms (which the Chinese have never really had), the Chinese Communist Party will make China prosperous. The larger the gap between the peasants in the fields and the rich bureaucrats, the more likely there is to be social unrest.

 

The one thing the CCP isn't is stupid. They want to remain in power, and remaining in power requires a near-constant improvement in the Chinese standard of living. Therefore, the CCP is highly unlikely to do anything that would jeopardize that continuous improvement.

[LeoPTY 24]

I don't see the US stopping imports as hurting China over the long run. With up-and-coming economies in India and Southeast Asia and established middle classes in Europe, its not unlikely that China would find a willing market for its crap without the US. I'd worry, as someone else mentioned, about the big chunks of American debt that the Chinese own. I don't know much about international finance, but it seems that if Beijing issued an announcement that they were no longer buying US debt, the value of bonds could drop. This could make it harder to sell bonds in the future.

It wouldn't hurt over the long run, but it's questionable whether China could hold on for the 10 years it'd take to re-establish their trading partnerships.

 

Not entirely. China has already announced that they don't want to hold as much US debt, they have too many dollars in their FOREX reserves right now. It's not the same as refusing to buy more. Technically, you could "refuse to buy more debt" and still be in the market as the old debt you hold matures and gets paid off. You're just rolling over the debt owed to you in that case.

 

The Chinese Communist Party has a contract with the Chinese people: in exchange for a large quantity of freedoms (which the Chinese have never really had), the Chinese Communist Party will make China prosperous. The larger the gap between the peasants in the fields and the rich bureaucrats, the more likely there is to be social unrest.

 

The one thing the CCP isn't is stupid. They want to remain in power, and remaining in power requires a near-constant improvement in the Chinese standard of living. Therefore, the CCP is highly unlikely to do anything that would jeopardize that continuous improvement.

 

Chinese demand for U.S. Treasuries will continue to be robust for the next 5-7 years. The PBC requires a steady source of assets (sovereign debt) in order to continue sterilizing its balance sheet to manipulate the Yuan rate. Europe is tapped out and Japan is able to fuel all of its spending through domestic bond sales. America is the only game in town now.

 

There will be mild appreciation of the Yuan in order to appease Chinese demand for imported goods, but most Chinese citizens are subsistence farmers which will happily take low tech manufacturing jobs.

[MT Predator 2,294]

thanks for the info MT. i was under the impression that most, if not all ended up taliban.

Forgot to add this. Afghanistan, (and Pakistan) are lands ruled by warlords. After the Soviets were run out, the Mujahideen fighters returned to their respective warlords. If a particular warlord turned Taliban, so did his men. The times I spent deployed in both countries, the locals flew colored flags representing who they supported. Only in Pakistan did I see black flags which represented the Taliban. Back on subject. Sorry folks.