I figured we needed a thread where we could toss emotion, bravado and political finger pointing aside and take a look at the cold hard facts.
I must admit I am not savvy when it comes to Presidential Executive Orders but when I read this one it seems very specific in places. Maybe that is a good thing?
1. It doesn't ban all small arm weapon exports from Russia, only those made by Kalishnikov Concern. (Special thanks to Nomad on another forum for pointing this out to me)
KALASHNIKOV CONCERN (a.k.a. CONCERN KALASHNIKOV; a.k.a. IZHEVSKIY MASHINOSTROITEL'NYI ZAVOD OAO; f.k.a. IZHMASH R&D CENTER; f.k.a. JSC NPO IZHMASH; f.k.a. NPO IZHMASH OAO; a.k.a. OJSC CONCERN KALASHNIKOV; f.k.a. OJSC IZHMASH; f.k.a. SCIENTIFIC PRODUCTION ASSOCIATION IZHMASH JOINT STOCK COMPANY), 3, Derjabin Pr., Izhevsk, Udmurt Republic 426006, Russia; Registration ID 1111832003018 [UKRAINE2].
Historically, Russia has displayed great ingenuity in skirting our import restrictions. If not, we wouldn't have a forum called Saiga in the first place. The Saiga was designed to get around our poorly thought out import restrictions. Do you think it is possible for Kalishikov Concern to close their doors and reform under a different identity or even relocate? Obviously if they were to do something like this immediately right now, the US would most likely respond with more widely encompassing sanctions, but down the road as tensions are eased I could see them doing something in this manner.
2. This executive order does not solely concentrate on Saigas or weapon manufacturers (from what I can tell). Read the entire thing here if you like, but I don't want to post the whole thing and annoy the TLDR crowd.
Why does this matter? Well it might matter when/if it comes time to lift the sanctions. At some point, someone either has to give or Putin and the Kenyan will throw us back into another cold war. When the time comes, because there are other large companies involved here, then the sanctions will need to be lifted. Now here is the part I don't know: Does the entire EO have to be rescinded or must there be another EO written to unsanction each individual entity? Can he selectively lift the sanctions? If he can, then we can probably forget about Kalashnikov Concern ever being lifted. I doubt even a sitting GOP president would touch it in the future.
Thoughts? Comments? Corrections?
Edited by Vermiform, 20 July 2014 - 12:01 AM.