Did you get the memo?

[Smiley_Guy 2]

Don't bother to read it, just say what you already believe. SG

-----------

 

 

DAVID MANNING

From: Matthew Rycroft

Date: 23 July 2002

S 195 /02

cc: Defence Secretary, Foreign Secretary, Attorney-General, Sir Richard Wilson, John Scarlett, Francis Richards, CDS, C, Jonathan Powell, Sally Morgan, Alastair Campbell

IRAQ: PRIME MINISTER'S MEETING, 23 JULY

 

Copy addressees and you met the Prime Minister on 23 July to discuss Iraq.

 

This record is extremely sensitive. No further copies should be made. It should be shown only to those with a genuine need to know its contents.

 

John Scarlett summarised the intelligence and latest JIC assessment. Saddam's regime was tough and based on extreme fear. The only way to overthrow it was likely to be by massive military action. Saddam was worried and expected an attack, probably by air and land, but he was not convinced that it would be immediate or overwhelming. His regime expected their neighbours to line up with the US. Saddam knew that regular army morale was poor. Real support for Saddam among the public was probably narrowly based.

 

C reported on his recent talks in Washington. There was a perceptible shift in attitude. Military action was now seen as inevitable. Bush wanted to remove Saddam, through military action, justified by the conjunction of terrorism and WMD. But the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy. The NSC had no patience with the UN route, and no enthusiasm for publishing material on the Iraqi regime's record. There was little discussion in Washington of the aftermath after military action. CDS said that military planners would brief CENTCOM on 1-2 August, Rumsfeld on 3 August and Bush on 4 August. The two broad US options were:

 

(a) Generated Start. A slow build-up of 250,000 US troops, a short (72 hour) air campaign, then a move up to Baghdad from the south. Lead time of 90 days (30 days preparation plus 60 days deployment to Kuwait).

 

( Running Start. Use forces already in theatre (3 x 6,000), continuous air campaign, initiated by an Iraqi casus belli. Total lead time of 60 days with the air campaign beginning even earlier. A hazardous option.

 

The US saw the UK (and Kuwait) as essential, with basing in Diego Garcia and Cyprus critical for either option. Turkey and other Gulf states were also important, but less vital. The three main options for UK involvement were:

 

(i) Basing in Diego Garcia and Cyprus, plus three SF squadrons.

 

(ii) As above, with maritime and air assets in addition.

 

(iii) As above, plus a land contribution of up to 40,000, perhaps with a discrete role in Northern Iraq entering from Turkey, tying down two Iraqi divisions.

 

The Defence Secretary said that the US had already begun "spikes of activity" to put pressure on the regime. No decisions had been taken, but he thought the most likely timing in US minds for military action to begin was January, with the timeline beginning 30 days before the US Congressional elections.

 

The Foreign Secretary said he would discuss this with Colin Powell this week. It seemed clear that Bush had made up his mind to take military action, even if the timing was not yet decided. But the case was thin. Saddam was not threatening his neighbours, and his WMD capability was less than that of Libya, North Korea or Iran. We should work up a plan for an ultimatum to Saddam to allow back in the UN weapons inspectors. This would also help with the legal justification for the use of force.

 

The Attorney-General said that the desire for regime change was not a legal base for military action. There were three possible legal bases: self-defence, humanitarian intervention, or UNSC authorisation. The first and second could not be the base in this case. Relying on UNSCR 1205 of three years ago would be difficult. The situation might of course change. The Prime Minister said that it would make a big difference politically and legally if Saddam refused to allow in the UN inspectors. Regime change and WMD were linked in the sense that it was the regime that was producing the WMD. There were different strategies for dealing with Libya and Iran. If the political context were right, people would support regime change. The two key issues were whether the military plan worked and whether we had the political strategy to give the military plan the space to work.

 

On the first, CDS said that we did not know yet if the US battleplan was workable. The military were continuing to ask lots of questions.

 

For instance, what were the consequences, if Saddam used WMD on day one, or if Baghdad did not collapse and urban warfighting began? You said that Saddam could also use his WMD on Kuwait. Or on Israel, added the Defence Secretary. The Foreign Secretary thought the US would not go ahead with a military plan unless convinced that it was a winning strategy. On this, US and UK interests converged. But on the political strategy, there could be US/UK differences. Despite US resistance, we should explore discreetly the ultimatum. Saddam would continue to play hard-ball with the UN. John Scarlett assessed that Saddam would allow the inspectors back in only when he thought the threat of military action was real.

 

The Defence Secretary said that if the Prime Minister wanted UK military involvement, he would need to decide this early. He cautioned that many in the US did not think it worth going down the ultimatum route. It would be important for the Prime Minister to set out the political context to Bush.

 

Conclusions:

 

(a) We should work on the assumption that the UK would take part in any military action. But we needed a fuller picture of US planning before we could take any firm decisions. CDS should tell the US military that we were considering a range of options.

 

( The Prime Minister would revert on the question of whether funds could be spent in preparation for this operation.

 

© CDS would send the Prime Minister full details of the proposed military campaign and possible UK contributions by the end of the week.

 

(d) The Foreign Secretary would send the Prime Minister the background on the UN inspectors, and discreetly work up the ultimatum to Saddam.

 

He would also send the Prime Minister advice on the positions of countries in the region especially Turkey, and of the key EU member states.

 

(e) John Scarlett would send the Prime Minister a full intelligence update.

 

(f) We must not ignore the legal issues: the Attorney-General would consider legal advice with FCO/MOD legal advisers.

 

(I have written separately to commission this follow-up work.)

 

MATTHEW RYCROFT

[Rycroft was a Downing Street foreign policy aide]

[emphasis added]

[SaigaShooter 0]

So did you get this from Newsweek? CBS? The New York Times? USA Today?

[k_dawg 0]

The thing is, there is not anything "new" or "startling" in this non-official "memo". In fact, it's old. It is just being dragged out, yet again.

 

The "tinfoil hats" are ignoring two facts:

 

#1 It takes a *LONG* time to plan any military action. Of course they would not wait until war was declared to start planning. And, the US continually plans for scenarios.

 

There are plans for just about any concievable event. Because one has plans, does not mean it is pre-determined that the nation will exgage in such plans.

 

#2 stupid american's not knowing the queen's english. "To Fix" has totally different connotations. In this case, as the memo writer already said ~2 years ago.. He used it in the common british manner, of solidifying the specifics.

 

It's as daft as being confused of why you take an elevator or stairs to reach the first floor in Britian.

[Rusty 0]

So, lemme get this straight: Our incompetent boob of a President was somehow able to manipulate public opinion, the Intelligence services of Brittan, France, Germany, the Clintoon administration, even those "inconvenient" Kurds Saddam gassed back in the 80s.

 

You guys need to pick a story and stick with it. President Bush is either an incompetent boob or an evil genius.

 

ps: I see your poorly understood memo and raise you one Huge freaking memo on the subject.

[G O B 3,516]

So the Bush Cheny administration lied. We all know that. Unfortunatly no-one cares. Congress will not return an impeachment, or even allow one to be brought to the floor. The neo-cons are firmly in power. Untill the unholy alliance of big business, big money, and fundamental christian theocracists self destructs, nothing will change. Less than 41% of americans approve of the current administration. Unfortunatly even less than that support the opposition. Like I have said many times NO ONE is representing ME! Bush and his cousin Kerry are both cousins of the Queen of england. Where is the outrage at having the ruling class taking over this country? We fought a war or two to get rid of them, and now people are allowing them to rule over us as shurely as they ever did. Why can't a Lee Iacocca or a General Swartscoft get their name on a ballot? Just WHO chooses the candidates?????

 

G O B

 

( placing tin hat back in the closet now)

[Tokageko 8]

Edited June 18, 2005 by Tokageko

[Smiley_Guy 2]

T.

 

Know your enemy

 

:-)

[Wolverine 10,360]

Breaking old news:

 

http://www.comcast.net/news/index.jsp?cat=.../18/159329.html

 

W.

[Gaddis 1,689]

So the Bush Cheny administration lied. We all know that.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Hmm, wonder from what Presidential administration they might have picked up those "streching the truth" tactics from?

 

Funny if W(BJ)C does it that's perfectly okay with the liberals.

[G O B 3,516]

Eisenhower had a brittish mistress as his secretary in the white house. Tricky Dick beat his wife . Kennedy screwed everything in sight. So WHAT was so bad about Bubba getting a BJ? AND WHY did we spend 77 million dollars to find out about it? For 200 years the private lives of the presidents was off limits. Why all of a sudden is willy's ruttings a crime? What about Delay's criminal empire? What about Cheny getting away with sending BILLIONS to Halliburton on "no bid" contracts. Get real the current administration is Nixon redux. The only difference is they are no longer young turks trying to sieze the levers of power, now they are are old men with a firm grip on the levers of power.

If anyone wants to know what is going on or even cares, find Eisenhower's farewell speach and read it carefully. He warned us of what was to come and no one listened!

 

G O B

[Wolverine 10,360]

I just hope it doesn't give Hillary the platform she needs in 2008. The Democrats will point to the "deliberately deceptive" pretext of WMD to justify a premptive strike that brought us into a protracted and costly war in Iraq costing thousands of U.S. soldiers lives for an ungrateful people that want us the hell out of their country. They will argue we have aggravated the Muslim community around the globe and fueled the jihad fire. The Dems will point to the massive loss of jobs, rising prices, and countless citizens without basic health care insurance. In the meantime we continue to immerse ourselves in the self destructive global market. Yes it appears the political pendulum is once again swinging. Who will run against Queen Hillary? Will it be Condi, or will Condi be stigmatized by recent disclosure she was discussing a basis for regime change in Iraq six months after 9/11? Is America ready for a female President, no less a black one? Not a chance. Stayed tuned for more political lies, deceit, manipulation and unbridled selfish ambition brought to you by both political parties. Is there an honest public servant left in the western hemisphere? Whatever happened to the Abe Lincoln's of the world?

 

W.

Edited June 19, 2005 by Wolverine

[Doerdie 0]

So, lemme get this straight:  Our incompetent boob of a President was somehow able to manipulate public opinion,

 

  President Bush is either an incompetent boob or an evil genius.

 

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

The only incompetent boobs here are John Kerry ass lickers. GW has balls, and did everything he said he would do. And you freakin liberals are suprized? Guess you want another guy with no morals boinking interns while sitting on his ass and getting NOTHING acomplished in 8 stinking years. I think the voting age needs to be raised to 30!

[IndyArms 10,186]

Thanks, IKE....

 

 

http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/ike.htm

 

 

 

[Wolverine 10,360]

During his term of office Clinton had information the extremists in the East were mounting, but he was too busy mounting Monica and God knows who else to do anything about it. 9/11 occurred during Bush's term but it would not have happened had Clinton done his job. Clinton maintained peace but at one hell of a price.

 

I'm anything but a liberal. But the truth is both parties are fucked up beyond all recognition. It is politics over substance with greed at the helm.

 

America doesn't know who she is anymore. Through political correctness we have become a multicultural fragmented and leaking bedpan. Anything goes and if you object you're labeled a negative narrow minded biggot. Our borders are overrun by illegal aliens and we welcome them with open arms. Damn the law and the financial consequences. More cheap labor is good for big business. In the name of progress, profit and the American way of life we continue to ship good jobs out of the country by the thousands while immersing ourselves in the global economy that brings cheaper prices today at the expense of jobs tomorrow . This country is so fucked up God can't straighten it out. The gap of the have and have nots is growing ever wider. The face and values of America has changed and not for the better. I firmly believe we will one day implode. I have seen the enemy and it is us. It may take another ten years but as the baby boomers come into retirement years without sufficient resources to live on and the generation behind cannot find meaningful work that pays a living wage we will once again see civil strife that will make the 1960's look like a square dance.

 

W.

[Rusty 0]

[Tokageko 8]

...

<sigh>

 

To think, some of you said there was no need/use/whatever for a "Political Forum" on this site. This is pretty entertaining. Keep it up.

 

: )

[Wolverine 10,360]

...

 

To think, some of you said there was no need/use/whatever for a "Political Forum" on this site.  This is pretty entertaining.  Keep it up.

 

: )

 

 

Yeah, but what else is there to do cause there sure ain't much new breaking on the Saiga front other than rumors of who is going to own and distribute them.

[G O B 3,516]

Thanks Indie- Ike said it all. Remember that Ike could not stand Nixon, who was Ike's VP , and that Bush has filled his inner circle with Nixon's people.

 

Hillary is the GOP's dream candidate, She is far too smart to run. The Democrats are still running a poor second. Bush's paltry 41% approval rating is still higher than any of the democrats.

 

There are no easy answers here. Anyone that thinks there are is oblivious to the forces that are shaping our destiny.

 

G O B

 

(Demand political MEAT- don't settle for sound bite!)

[cvasqu03 21]

...

<sigh>

 

To think, some of you said there was no need/use/whatever for a "Political Forum" on this site.  This is pretty entertaining.  Keep it up.

 

: )

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

Yeah, but what else is there to do cause there sure ain't much new breaking on the Saiga front other than rumors of who is going to own and distribute them.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

 

LOL

 

Thanks wolverine, you actually made me smile. I was getting sick of listening to the continous back & forth.